We are an independent, global, inter-disciplinary, non-partisan group of policy-makers, scholars, scientists, strategists and others convened to think through the wide range of issues and crises associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission’s purpose is to enable informed discourse and decision-making, to frame priorities and help build consensus on policy solutions to strengthen societal and global resilience. The full list of Commissioners can be found here.

VACCINE COUNTDOWN

GLOBAL DAILY DOSES  30.8 MILLION*

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If the current daily vaccination rate of 30.8 million doses could be maintained, the world could achieve full vaccination of 80% of the population in the time shown on the clock. Yet there is a huge disparity between regions, with Africa currently destined to take more than three years to achieve this goal, compared with just a few months elsewhere. Our new map gives countdowns for all the six major regions of the world.

* Seven-day rolling average. Source: Our World In Data

music festival crowds

The elusive notion of herd immunity

By Luke Lythgoe, GCPPP staff, September 9th 2021

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the holy grail has been the achievement of “herd immunity”, a notional state of grace in which so many people have antibodies to the virus that transmission drops dramatically and the pandemic ultimately fades away. This ANALYSIS looks at what scientists mean by herd immunity and how they calculate it, and at how those calculations have evolved in recent months, as our understanding and the virus itself have evolved.

Provincetown and “othering”

By Pardis Sabeti, Commissioner, GCPPP, August 4th 2021

This ARGUMENT looks at the widespread reaction to the Provincetown, Cape Cod, outbreak after July 4th and highlights the danger of “othering”, the natural but damaging instinct to want to treat something as YOUR problem rather than OURS. And then we overlook facts that could help us.

The invasion and desecration on January 6th of the seat of American democracy by a crowd incited by President Donald Trump

THE BATTLE TO UNDERSTAND, AND DEFEAT, CONSPIRACY THEORIES

By Dylan Barry, GCPPP staff, July 16th 2021

The widespread breakdown in trust in facts, expertise, government and democracy itself before the pandemic has manifested itself during this crisis in conspiracy theories about the virus and, most damagingly now, about vaccines. This ANALYSIS looks at how belief in conspiracy theories is hard-wired into human psychology and how this can be responded to.

Leading Indicators

Our regular update on the world’s progress in producing vaccines, covering the month of August, showed output of approved COVID-19 vaccines worldwide recovering to over 1.27 billion. If this pace can be maintained or slightly bettered it would mean at least a further 5 billion doses would be produced by the end of 2021, bringing total output of approved COVID-19 vaccines by year end to somewhere between 10.8 billion and 11.5 billion doses, sufficient to give a full two-dose immunisation to about 5.5 billion people, about 70% of the world’s population — if rich-country booster shots do not divert a significant quantity during that period.