We are an independent, global, inter-disciplinary, non-partisan group of policy-makers, scholars, scientists, strategists and others convened to think through the wide range of issues and crises associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission’s purpose is to enable informed discourse and decision-making, to frame priorities and help build consensus on policy solutions to strengthen societal and global resilience. The full list of Commissioners can be found here.

VACCINE COUNTDOWN TO 80%

GLOBAL DAILY DOSES  31.5 MILLION, approx 28.35 MILLION EXCL BOOSTERS*

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We have adjusted our vaccine countdown to take account of the fact that 10% of daily doses worldwide are now booster shots. It indicates that Asia and Europe can reach 80% of their populations with the two-dose regimen by March 2022, North America can get there in May 2022, but Africa will not reach 80% at current rates until August 2025Our map gives the countdowns for all the six major regions of the world.

* Seven-day rolling average. Source: Our World In Data

The science and politics of boosters

By Dylan Barry, GCPPP Staff, November 16th 2021

More than 170 million booster shots have now been administered worldwide, 50 million of them in China, and boosters now account for about 10% of vaccine doses daily. Yet as as our vaccine countdown shows, Africa and other poor countries remain years away from achieving anything like full vaccine protection for their populations. This ANALYSIS looks at the science behind the case for booster shots so soon after the first two doses have been given, and at the politics behind the choice to go ahead with them.

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The elusive notion of herd immunity

By Luke Lythgoe, GCPPP staff, September 9th 2021

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the holy grail has been the achievement of “herd immunity”, a notional state of grace in which so many people have antibodies to the virus that transmission drops dramatically and the pandemic ultimately fades away. This ANALYSIS looks at what scientists mean by herd immunity and how they calculate it, and at how those calculations have evolved in recent months, as our understanding and the virus itself have evolved.

THE SPECTRE OF A POOR-COUNTRY DEBT CRISIS

By Dylan Barry, GCPPP staff, October 1st 2021

In this ANALYSIS we look at the problem of indebtedness in the developing world, the efforts of the multilateral institutions to prevent a debt crisis, and the risk of such a crisis in the near future.

Leading Indicators

In October both India (up 35% on September) and the European Union (up 34.5%) saw big rises in monthly output, while Chinese production fell back by 40% as that country’s domestic vaccine programme slowed down. The United States remained very much a second-rank producer, with 79.8 million doses against the EU’s 369 million, while the list of third-rank producers swelled with all of Russia, Switzerland, Argentina, Japan, South Korea and Australia now making useful quantities. The global total slipped back from September’s 1.58 billion to 1.43 billion thanks to that Chinese slowdown, but the accumulated total production by end-2021 remains likely to exceed 11.5 billion doses. Thanks to that growth in India and in third-rank partner countries, AstraZeneca leapt ahead to become the world’s leading vaccine during October.