We are an independent, global, inter-disciplinary, non-partisan group of policy-makers, scholars, scientists, strategists and others convened to think through the wide range of issues and crises associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission’s purpose is to enable informed discourse and decision-making, to frame priorities and help build consensus on policy solutions to strengthen societal and global resilience. The full list of Commissioners can be found here.

VACCINE COUNTDOWN TO 80%

GLOBAL DAILY DOSES  23.4 MILLION*

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We’re falling further behind. The current daily vaccination rate of 23.4 million doses is a slowdown from 27.5 million just two weeks ago. Even so, if it could be maintained and be more evenly shared, the world could achieve full vaccination of 80% of the population in the time shown on the clock. Yet there is a huge disparity between regions, with Africa falling even more behind, currently destined to take nearly four more years to achieve this goal, compared with just a few months elsewhere. Our new map gives countdowns for all the six major regions of the world.

* Seven-day rolling average. Source: Our World In Data

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The elusive notion of herd immunity

By Luke Lythgoe, GCPPP staff, September 9th 2021

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the holy grail has been the achievement of “herd immunity”, a notional state of grace in which so many people have antibodies to the virus that transmission drops dramatically and the pandemic ultimately fades away. This ANALYSIS looks at what scientists mean by herd immunity and how they calculate it, and at how those calculations have evolved in recent months, as our understanding and the virus itself have evolved.

Provincetown and “othering”

By Pardis Sabeti, Commissioner, GCPPP, August 4th 2021

This ARGUMENT looks at the widespread reaction to the Provincetown, Cape Cod, outbreak after July 4th and highlights the danger of “othering”, the natural but damaging instinct to want to treat something as YOUR problem rather than OURS. And then we overlook facts that could help us.

THE SPECTRE OF A POOR-COUNTRY DEBT CRISIS

By Dylan Barry, GCPPP staff, October 1st 2021

In this ANALYSIS we look at the problem of indebtedness in the developing world, the efforts of the multilateral institutions to prevent a debt crisis, and the risk of such a crisis in the near future.

Leading Indicators

Worldwide monthly output of approved COVID-19 vaccines jumped by 25% in September to nearly 1.58 billion doses, with especially impressive 65% rises in India and 45% in the European Union. Thailand also emerged as a major manufacturer of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, producing 52.5 million doses in the month compared with just 8.4 million in August. Output in American plants remains volatile, with output 47% lower in September than August. At this monthly pace, total output by the end of 2021 looks set to near 12 billion doses.