We are an independent, global, inter-disciplinary, non-partisan group of policy-makers, scholars, scientists, strategists and others convened to think through the wide range of issues and crises associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission’s purpose is to enable informed discourse and decision-making, to frame priorities and help build consensus on policy solutions to strengthen societal and global resilience. The full list of Commissioners can be found here.

VACCINE COUNTDOWN

GLOBAL DAILY DOSES  27 MILLION*

0Days0Hours0Minutes0Seconds

TO GLOBAL HERD IMMUNITY

If the current daily vaccination rate could be maintained, the world could achieve full, two-dose vaccination of 80% of adults in this time. This is far sooner than most people realise. But it can be done, with the right policy interventions.

* Seven-day rolling average. Source: Our World In Data

Earth Globe held by gloved hands with green plant sprouting

Argument: Vaccine licensing

By Michael Spence, Commissioner, GCPPP, May 12th 2021

Of the two approaches under discussion — IP rights suspension, as supported by the Biden administration, or compulsory licensing — mandatory licensing is preferable because it acknowledges that the creator and producer of the drug or vaccine is entitled to a return, and so has less potential effect on future incentives to create and produce.

At this juncture in the pandemic, the big question before the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Health Organization (WHO), and all global leaders is whether vaccine production and delivery can be ramped up quickly enough to allow a large majority of people around the world to be vaccinated relatively soon – the next year perhaps.  Lying behind that question is whether and under what circumstances it is appropriate to suspend domestic and internationally agreed intellectual property rights.  The matter is being discussed in the WTO right now, and the Biden administration’s surprise expression of support for suspension on May 5th has exposed a rift between western governments over the issue.

VACCINE COUNTDOWN

GLOBAL DAILY DOSES: 27 MILLION*
0Days0Hours0Minutes0Seconds

TO GLOBAL HERD IMMUNITY

As of May XX a total of 1.6 billion doses of vaccines had been administered worldwide. Scientists differ on whether the level of vaccinated immunity needed to end the pandemic is 70% of the adult population or 80% or somewhere in between. The clock is based on the higher, 80% target. The world’s population is currently approaching 7.9 billion, of which an estimated 26% are below the age of 15. The adult population is therefore 5.85 billion people, and an 80% target entails 4.72 billion people being fully vaccinated, which for simplicity we assume the required number of doses will be twice that, 9.44 billion. Taking the latest daily vaccination rate, the clock calculates the time required to meet that goal, assuming the current speed is maintained.

* Seven-day rolling average. Source: Our World In Data

What we know about long COVID

By Dylan Barry, GCPPP staff, May 5th 2021

This Research Monitor looks at the still somewhat mysterious post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS), known as long COVID, at its features and potential explanations, at treatments and at the syndrome’s potential long-term health and economic legacies. 

multi-racial Emoji faces with mask

The Pandemic This Week

Our summary of the main pandemic crises-related news in the week to May 10th.

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND GOVERNMENT PLANS

By Luke Lythgoe, GCPPP Staff

This Policy Monitor looks at what emerges from the record about the strengths and (mainly) weaknesses of previous efforts by governments to prepare for pandemic-type threats, and the degree to which lessons had been learned.

Leading Indicators

This is the first of what we plan as monthly updates on the world’s progress in producing vaccines to protect against COVID-19 and of manufacturers’ latest targets for total output by the end of this year.